international relations
Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Regional voices
The sound the sirens make You learn the difference between the warning siren and the all-clear siren the way you learn your mother’s voice — not because anyone teaches you, but because the alternative is dying confused.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Non-interventionists
Two tours and a line item Eighteen months in Anbar Province. Eight months in Helmand. We watched the Kabul airport footage from a living room in Virginia and understood the specific weight of a twenty-year investment collapsing in eleven days. $18 billion.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Diplomatic realists
The compliance reports nobody reads The JCPOA was signed on July 14, 2015, in Vienna. We can still recite the sunset clauses. The Arak heavy-water reactor redesigned to produce less than one kilogram of weapons-grade plutonium.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Deterrence hawks
Twelve minutes 180 ballistic missiles. October 1, 2024. Shahab-3s and Fattah-1s on trajectories aimed at Nevatim Air Base and Mossad headquarters. The flight time from Iranian launch sites to Israeli targets is twelve minutes. That is not a gesture. That is an attempt.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: The Story
180 ballistic missiles, twelve minutes of flight time Roughly 180 Iranian ballistic missiles arced toward Israel on October 1, 2024. Not the telegraphed drone swarm of April, designed to be intercepted and interpreted. Ballistic missiles — fast, aimed at airbases.... Who started the Ukraine war?: Structural inevitability
The line from Tallinn to Odessa Draw it. Everything east was part of the Russian Empire for centuries. Everything west was Habsburg, Ottoman, or Polish-Lithuanian. NATO moved across it. Russia pushed back. Ukraine sat on top of it.... Who started the Ukraine war?: Russian revanchism analysts
The soldiers wore no insignia They moved through Simferopol in unmarked vehicles, surrounded the Crimean parliament, and raised the Russian flag on February 27, 2014. Putin denied they were Russian. Then he admitted it on camera, with a smirk.... Who started the Ukraine war?: NATO expansion critics
The cable they read and ignored Burns sent it February 1, 2008. Four pages, classified. He did not hedge. Ukrainian NATO membership is the brightest of all redlines for the entire Russian political class. Not a Putin problem. A Russia problem.... Who started the Ukraine war?: The Story
The cable that read like a weather forecast In February 2008, the American ambassador to Russia sent a cable to Washington titled "Nyet Means Nyet." William Burns — one of the most carefully calibrated diplomats in the foreign service — wrote that Ukrainian entry into NATO was... Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: Developmental integration
The wrong axis Threat or opportunity is a question that assumes the answer is one word. We think the answer is a century. Every industrial power in the last three hundred years has gone through a sequence: export-driven growth, military modernization, nationalist consolidation,... Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: Thucydides trap
The procurement documents Xi Jinping has said the military must be capable of fighting and winning wars by 2027. The PLA Navy commissioned more warships between 2015 and 2023 than the entire Royal Navy has in service.... Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: The Story
The new uranium Computing power is the new uranium. That is not a metaphor — it is the operating logic behind the most aggressive export controls the United States has imposed on any country since the Cold War.... What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: Accommodation realists
The spreadsheet at the bottom of every scenario The CSIS war game: two aircraft carriers sunk, nine hundred aircraft destroyed, thousands of American dead, Japan’s Okinawa bases devastated, TSMC’s fabs inoperable, global recession.... What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: Strategic ambiguity
The interview that almost started a war In 2001, Bush told an interviewer the US would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan. By afternoon, his staff was walking it back. The episode triggered the most dangerous spike in cross-Strait tensions since 1996. Clarity sounds strong.... What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: The Story
Imagine you are a semiconductor fab Imagine you are the most valuable factory on earth. You sit on an island one hundred miles from a military that has promised to take it back, in a country that has never declared independence, protected by a superpower that has never said... No other choice. If it is indeed wrong to say out loud that I do not trust Jews anymore, then that will just have to be something I learn to live with like I do genocide, ethnic cleansing, pedophilia and the deliberate murder of world central kitchen and other aid workers. Israel is a savage and degenerate ally, a child killing lying thieving nation state , a menace to all of humanity and friend to no one...Especially Americans!
Yes, you were. I used the PLA because the governmental entity in Gaza is Hamas. As soon as the conflict tamped down somewhat, Hamas went back to killing Palestinians at will, some ostensibly for collusion others just to force compliance. The Oct.... No other choice. If it is indeed wrong to say out loud that I do not trust Jews anymore, then that will just have to be something I learn to live with like I do genocide, ethnic cleansing, pedophilia and the deliberate murder of world central kitchen and other aid workers. Israel is a savage and degenerate ally, a child killing lying thieving nation state , a menace to all of humanity and friend to no one...Especially Americans!
The PLA was offered everything they asked for, and Arafat rejected it. Israel has repeatedly negotiated, made offers meeting the Palestinian requests, and been turned down. "From the river to the sea" specifically means all the Jews in Israel must die.... No other choice. If it is indeed wrong to say out loud that I do not trust Jews anymore, then that will just have to be something I learn to live with like I do genocide, ethnic cleansing, pedophilia and the deliberate murder of world central kitchen and other aid workers. Israel is a savage and degenerate ally, a child killing lying thieving nation state , a menace to all of humanity and friend to no one...Especially Americans!
I mean this seriously. If you were the state of Israel, understanding your state was formed in response to the holocaust killing over 60% of the Jews in Europe, how would you deal with Palestinians that chant for your death, have written political platforms that include...